A critical look at scientists who claim they can predict who will have amazing romantic relationships
And 10 questions to check on your own romantic partner decisions
Having once served as a relationship therapist, I remain fascinated by Drs. John and Julie Gottman and their Gottman Method for Healthy Relationships.1 John Gottman is the guy claiming he can predict which couples will divorce with 93.6% accuracy!2
It’s an extraordinary claim. A number that brings the Gottman family yacht loads of cash and prestige.
Here’s the problem:
In Gottman’s first attempt at being a superforecaster, he sifted through data in his research studies to find the 20 happiest and 20 unhappiest couples.
With this knowledge, only then did he go back in time and scour through self-report questionnaires, interviews, and videotaped conversations to figure out what distinguished couples who were and weren’t happy, and did and didn’t divorce.
He did not predict the future. He recruited extreme groups of people and then hunted for explanations (precursors to the event). This approach is called conditioning on the consequence. It’s very similar to venture capitalists who erroneously believe they can pick the next million dollar company by choosing companies that are similar to what made them money in the past. A strategy that often fails miserably.3
Consider a benign example: You want to create a lucrative consulting business that churns out spelling bee champions. Targeting high-income parents and their insecurities is a popular strategy. To build the business, you gain access to a decade of spelling bee champions. You talk to the champs and their families. You explore their demographics, neighborhood, medical and school records, personality assessments, map their social networks, and detail training regimens. With this battery, you differentiate winners from people who lost or quit. Some promising ideas emerge such as the importance of deliberate practice. However, you cannot claim to predict winners until you test whether your guesses at which kids will succeed actually do. You must collect data with a new group of spelling bee contestants and place bets on who performs poorly and exceptionally - a technique known as cross-validation. What might be surprising to readers mesmerized by Gottman Method claims4, “no published study predicting divorce with general population couples has done this to date.”
A Not So Revolutionary Idea: Consider the Individual and Their Assets and Liabilities
Central to the Gottman approach is the four problematic behaviors of unhappy couples - the “Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.” Avoid criticism, contempt, defensiveness, and stonewalling, and you too can stave off divorce.
But here’s the thing - it’s hard to prioritize healthy romantic relationship communication when you’re dealing with financial difficulties, physical health problems, and energy deficits from working multiple jobs for meager wages. This doesn’t fit nicely into the Gottman Model. These issues prevent people from having the resources to afford therapy sessions and workshops with the Gottman Model (or any other trademarked therapy).
What’s interesting to me is how little attention is given to what individuals bring into the relationship. It’s hard to be present for a partner and share in their interests and triumphs if you have an unresolved history of trauma, crippling social anxiety, or a personality disorder.
This brings me to a fascinating study led by Dr. Samantha Joel and 85 colleagues on the strongest candidates for being part of a satisfying romantic relationship. They didn’t study 130 couples (such as the initial Gottman study that received a bonanza of media attention). They dissected 43 longitudinal studies that included 11,196 romantic couples! They wanted to know what characteristics of each partner in couples account for the health of the relationship 2 to 48 months later.
What didn’t matter are demographics often assumed to be relevant to everything: sex, gender, race, and education. It is worthwhile to test hypotheses of when sex, gender, and race matter, when they don’t, and why.
If we are going to place bets on what makes a high-quality romantic relationship, Dr. Joel’s research suggests you better attend to what individuals are like beforehand. Ask these 5 questions about potential mates:
How satisfied are they with their lives? (general happiness)
How often do they experience intense, unpredictable emotions that are hard to manage? (emotional instability)
How depressed do they feel?
Do they worry constantly about being abandoned? (attachment anxiety)
Do they rarely share distressing thoughts and feelings because they fear intimacy? (attachment avoidance)
As for being in a relationship, what matters is less about what esteemed doctors observe through a one-way mirror and more about what each partner thinks and feels. Ponder these 5 relationship perceptions.
Does your partner care if this relationship ends soon? (belief in partner’s commitment)
Do you feel lucky in finding this exact partner? (relationship gratitude)
Are your needs met and fantasies fulfilled in the bedroom? (sexual satisfaction)
How happy is your partner in this relationship? (belief in partner’s satisfaction)
Can you have productive disagreements with your partner? (conflict style)
With such a diverse array of people on the planet, be skeptical of experts who claim anything close to 100% accuracy in predicting what humans will do in relationships. Add another dose of skepticism if their paycheck depends on being accurate.
If you want to experience greater well-being, improve your relationships. It is one of the cheapest, profound interventions that exist. As you spend time with people, choose wisely. Science continues to offer insights into what to look for, and how to be an ideal partner (that we ourselves desire).
It cannot be stressed enough: science tells us what works for the average person. Individual results will vary. Safety not guaranteed. Be informed by the science. Tailor what sounds promising and interesting to your unique life.
If you enjoyed this newsletter, please leave a ❤️. Even better, share this conversation. And if you read The Art of Insubordination (with the strategies and rules of Principled Dissent), send me thoughts, questions, or beefs. I love hearing from readers.
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Extra Curiosities
The LISTEN/WATCH - In a world where people are identifying strongly as woke or anti-woke, liberal or conservative, there are thinkers who are filled with curiosity and compassion simply trying to figure things out. Listen to my fun podcast conversation titled, "The Professor Rebelling Against Group-Think." - Watch the video:
Or listen to the episode:
The education system needs bravery, especially at the university level. If you are concerned, enjoy my conversation on the NeoAcademia podcast.
The TRAINING - Having recently been dragged into disturbing conversations with white supremacists online, I found this valuable panel of scholars with tips for dealing with online trolls.
The BOOK - My friend Dolly Chugh has a groundbreaking book that I am relishing. Rare is the book that offers some course corrections to your beliefs. This is one of them. Pick up: A More Just Future!!!
I’m always concerned when scientists name instruments, tests, therapies, or institutes after themselves. When you name is attached to the work, an over identification with being “correct” forms. The problem is that this psychological conflict of interest makes it hard to accept mistakes and failures, especially when pointed out by critics. My advice: reduce your number of identities. Let people tinker, improve, and fix the work. You will still be part of the historical annals of science. Psychological conflicts of interest serve as an unnecessary barrier to the evolution of ideas.
I cannot stress this enough: divorce is not inherently a problem. It could be wonderful. Think of emotionally or physically abused or neglected partners who fail to have their needs met despite feedback and intentional attempts to improve. The antiquated view of divorce is yet another beef that probably deserves another newsletter.
Their latest book claims a “powerful plan to transform your relationship in seven days.” I hope it works for a large number of people.